Come November 30, 2013, and the State Cabinet has to update the status of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act in the seven Assembly constituencies in Imphal municipality. After the series of bomb blasts in Imphal recently where human fatalities occurred, the state administration had made veiled threats that the escalation in violence will be damaging to its case in defense of keeping away the Act from Imphal municipality. The follow-up public statements given by political heads of the state tried to give the false impression that it is succumbing to steady pressures applied from the Centre to review its decision. At the same time, a proscribed organization created more frenzy to the debate on the possibility of re-introduction of AFSPA while making a claim that the series of bomb blasts was orchestrated by the security forces to create a suitable atmosphere for drawing a conclusion that the ‘disturbed tag’ was justifiable in the seven Assembly constituencies of Imphal as well. In retrospection, the public did receive the whole episode in a casual manner. They did not perceive the dangerous prospect of the return of the draconian law and rightly so. In many ways, using the series of bomb blast as a justification for re-introduction of AFSPA in the seven ACs will be illogical. One of the reasons is that the recent violence was not restricted to the areas from where the Act had been lifted. The menace of bomb blasts has cast its shadow at Ukhrul and Bishnupur among other places where the Act is very much in force.
Moreover, the re-introduction of AFSPA will lead to an instantaneous rejuvenation of the anti-AFSPA movement which seemed to have hit a small bump following the squabble involving the Just Peace Foundation. Public unrest and violence and a massive challenge for the whole apparatus of the administration is predictable. In all probability, the Cabinet meeting will go through the motion of discussing the pros and cons of extension of withdrawal of the Act from the constituencies. However, there is unlikely to be polarization of opinions or long-drawn discussion owing to lack of consensus or even indecisiveness in drawing a decision. The topic of the spurt in violence in the seven constituencies will indeed be touched. But the decision on November 30 will be pretty straightforward. Nobody can fault the Chief Minister and his Cabinet colleagues for sticking to the existing state of affairs, not even the Centre. The foreboding of violence will be the savior for the Cabinet.