National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval will begin his visit of Myanmar on June 17 (today). One of the agendas before him during his meetings with his counterparts in the country, obviously will be the question of tackling cross-border insurgency jointly. This probably will have two related but different points to pursue. One, it may be recalled, immediately after the June 4 ambush, newspapers in Imphal reported that the National Investigation Agency, NIA, had filed a case against SS Khaplang for his crimes on Indian soil. With this case as the basis, India could be seeking Khaplang`™s extradition to India to face the case. The other point would probably be to have Myanmar agree to a Bhutan style operation in Khaplang stronghold on the eastern side of the Patkai watershed in Myanmar`™s Sagaing Division to flush out Indian militants taking shelter there.
Though India`™s concern is understandable, it is not difficult to see why Myanmar may find it not as easy to agree. For one, Myanmar is itself plagued by numerous ethnic insurgencies, and is at the moment trying to have all of them come to a ceasefire with its central government. Its objective is to bring these ethnic rebel armies to come to another joint declaration of upholding a federal Myanmar in the manner the Panglong Agreement envisaged in 1947 on the eve of Myanmar`™s independence. Khaplang is just one among these ethnic leaders Myanmar government is wooing. To isolate Khaplang for a different treatment to suit Indian needs may upset the pattern of peace plan of the Myanmar government amongst all its own ethnic states. India may be willing to help Myanmar tackle Khaplang, but Khaplang is not Myanmar`™s only problem, and in fact may even not be the most important. Our guess is, Myanmar is unlikely to agree to either request, but if does concede to one, it will be on the question of extraditing Khaplang to India.
Moreover, the recent devastating June 4 ambush on a convoy of the 6-Dogra Regiment by a combined team of militants now working together under Khaplang, and June 9 loudly declared surgical operations by Indian troops within Myanmar territory may have queered the diplomatic pitch with Myanmar. Though nobody is stating it, it is reasonable to believe that Doval`™s visit at this juncture could also be to control whatever damages caused by the publicity blitzkrieg of the Government of India, using the New Delhi media. Myanmar has since denied Indian troops entered its territory. The truth of whether Indian troops entered Myanmar or not could be either way, as media reports now suggest. In any case, even if Indian troops did enter Myanmar, and even if there were prior unpublicised agreements between the two countries to allow such hot chases into each other`™s territories, it was absolutely unbecoming of India to have made such a din over it. This was bound to embarrass Myanmar, and the latter rather than explaining it to its people, would have been forced to go on a denial mode even if the raids did happen.
Whichever way the truth was, India should have kept the mission a secret. Maybe India was trying to mimic the US navy SEAL Abbottabad raid to kill Osama Bin Laden in 2011, and the unabashed proclamation of the raid to the world. The difference is, while Pakistan is a US surrogate and cannot do much to severe its relations with the US, Myanmar relation with India is hardly of this nature. Though the Myanmar government at this moment seems a little estranged from China, considering the Chinese leaders`™ bid to woo opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the country can easily drift away from India and into Chinese embrace again. Doval`™s visit could therefore be in anticipation of harms of this nature, and to work out ways to mend fences. It goes without saying that Myanmar is important to India geo-strategically more than even commerce. This is in the wake of China`™s rise as a global superpower and the country`™s ambition to become a two ocean power by having a dominating presence in the India Ocean. Myanmar could be the pivot for China to achieve this ambition, just as it would be the key to India and the West`™s bid to keep China from achieving this goal.
Leader Writer: Pradip Phanjoubam